The Fed Raised Rates. Should You Buy Now, or Wait for Spring?
A two-part guide: first for buyers who will be financing, then for sellers who need to think like one.
On Wednesday, September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point, its first increase since 2023. The vote was unanimous. By Thursday, Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.95%, up from 6.76% the week before and the highest it has been since January 2025. If you are buying or selling a home in Chicago or on the North Shore this fall, that headline landed on your kitchen table whether you asked for it or not.
Here is what it means, in two parts. Buyers first, because you feel it most directly. Sellers, don't skip ahead. The second half only makes sense once you've read the first.
Sept 16, 2026
as of Sept 17, 2026
one year ago
The Fall Market Versus a Bet on Spring
Let's clear up one thing first. The Fed does not set mortgage rates. It sets the overnight rate banks charge each other, and mortgage rates follow the bond market, particularly the 10-year Treasury. But the two move in the same neighborhood, and this week they moved together, upward. Mortgage rates have now risen four weeks in a row.
So the question every buyer is asking is a fair one: Should I buy now at nearly 7%, or wait until spring and hope things improve?
I want to give you an honest answer, which means I have to give you two answers.
What waiting could get you
Rates could come down. The Fed's own committee is split on what 2027 looks like. Some officials see another hike, some see a hold, a handful see cuts. If inflation cools faster than expected, the bond market will react before the Fed does, and mortgage rates could ease. That is a real possibility, and I won't pretend otherwise.
What waiting could cost you
Two things, and they compound.
First, the rate itself. The Fed's median projection calls for one more increase before the end of the year. If that happens and the bond market follows, spring rates could sit a half point above where they are today. Nobody knows. But "nobody knows" is not the same as "it will get better."
Second, and this is the part buyers consistently underestimate: the competition. Fall is historically the better buyer's market in Chicago. Fewer buyers are out looking. Sellers who list in October and November tend to be motivated. You can negotiate. You can ask for a credit toward closing costs. You can take a week to think about it.
Spring is the opposite. Everyone who spent the winter waiting comes out at once. Inventory is fresh, but so is the crowd, and more buyers chasing the same houses means multiple offers and higher prices. That is not a prediction; it is the pattern I have watched play out year after year.
Let's put numbers on it
Take a $1,000,000 purchase with 20% down, which is an $800,000 loan. Here is what the principal-and-interest payment looks like at today's average rate, and at a rate a half point higher.
| Scenario | Rate | Monthly P&I |
|---|---|---|
| Buy this fall | 6.95% | $5,296 |
| Wait, rates rise a half point | 7.45% | $5,566 |
| Wait, rates rise a half point and the price rises 3% ($1,030,000) | 7.45% | $5,733 |
Principal and interest only, 30-year fixed, $800,000 loan on a $1,000,000 purchase with 20% down. Excludes taxes, insurance, and HOA. Rates and prices in rows two and three are illustrative scenarios, not forecasts. The 6.95% figure is Freddie Mac's national weekly average as of September 17, 2026; your quoted rate will differ.
The half point alone is about $271 more per month, roughly $3,250 a year, and close to $97,000 over the life of the loan if you never refinance. Add a modest spring price bump and you are at $438 more per month than the buyer who acted this fall. That is the real cost of waiting, and it is why I keep telling clients the same thing.
It comes down to your level of certainty
If you are certain rates will fall by spring, wait. But be honest with yourself about where that certainty comes from. The people whose job it is to know, the Fed's own committee, are not certain. And you cannot refinance your purchase price. You can refinance your rate.
If you find the right house this fall, at a price you can negotiate because fewer people are bidding, with a payment you can carry, you have taken the one variable off the table that never comes back around. The rate is a problem you can fix later. The house you didn't buy is not.
Put On the Buyer's Hat for a Minute
If you own a home in Lincoln Park, Lakeview, or anywhere along the North Shore and you are thinking about selling, I need you to go back and reread Part One. Not because it applies to you directly, but because that is the exact conversation happening at every buyer's kitchen table right now. Those are the people who would be writing you an offer.
Many sellers I talk to this time of year say some version of the same thing: We'd like to be in the house through the holidays. We haven't found anything to buy yet. We haven't decided where we're going. Let's just push it to spring.
All of those are legitimate reasons. Let me just make sure you understand the risk you are taking on when you kick it down the road.
The spring you're picturing may not be the spring you get
The spring market of 2026 was strong. Sellers who listed in April and May did well, and it is natural to assume 2027 will be a repeat. But that market happened with mortgage rates meaningfully lower than they are today. If the Fed follows through on one more increase and rates are another half point higher by March, the buyer pool you are counting on will be thinner and more cautious. Some buyers will have stepped back entirely. Others will be offering less because their monthly payment forces them to.
We just don't know. And I will tell you what I tell every client: the market does not like uncertainty. Buyers who are unsure freeze. Frozen buyers do not write offers.
What the fall has going for sellers
Fewer listings. The buyers who are out in October and November are serious; nobody tours houses in a Chicago November for fun. A well-prepared, correctly priced home in the fall can stand out in a way it simply cannot in May, when it is one of forty new listings that week.
If you decide to wait anyway
Then do one thing now, this month, while the leaves are turning and the light is good. Have your agent come in and photograph the house.
Your home looks its best right now. The landscaping is full, the trees are in color, the porch is set up. By the time you are ready to list in March, the yard is brown, the sky is gray, and you are stuck with photos that make a beautiful house look like every other listing in a Chicago winter. Photography done now, before you have committed to anything, means that when you do decide to move, your listing goes live with images that were taken when the house was at its peak.
We photograph homes for clients who are not even sure they are moving next year. There is no obligation and no listing agreement required. It is simply good planning, and it costs you nothing to be ready. If you are thinking about a spring sale, even vaguely, reach out and we will get on the calendar before the season turns.
Certainty is the one thing nobody is selling
Buyers, the fall gives you leverage and a rate you can refinance. Waiting gives you a crowd and a rate you can only guess at. Sellers, the buyers you want are having this conversation right now, and the answer they arrive at shapes your spring. Whatever you decide, decide it with the full picture, and let's make sure you're ready either way.
Buying or selling this fall?
Whether you're weighing an offer now or planning for spring, we'll walk you through the numbers for your situation, not the national average.
Contact The Kernahan Group847.877.7100 · kernahangroup.com
- Federal Reserve Board, FOMC Statement, September 16, 2026
- CNBC, "Fed rate decision September 2026: Rates rise to 3.75%-4%"
- CNBC, "Fed meeting recap: Warsh says inflation is still too high as Fed hikes for the first time since 2023"
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of September 17, 2026
- Trading Economics, "United States 30-Year Mortgage Rate"
- FOMC Meeting Schedule, September 2026
Payment figures are calculated by The Kernahan Group using a standard 30-year amortization formula and are for illustration only. Observations about seasonal buyer competition reflect the author's professional experience in the Chicago and North Shore markets. This post is not financial advice; consult your lender for a personalized rate quote.